This blog is devoted to information about thorium as a fuel and about Thorium Power as an investment opportunity.
The economic potential of Thorium Power hinges upon its ability to license its fuel designs. And first it must test, build, and obtain licenses or some form of acceptance from the nuclear industry and governments which license nuclear plant construction.
This article is about the state of testing.
Here is an excerpt from the article:
"In about three years, Thorium Power hope to begin full-size tests which will take another three years. After that the company hopes to gain regulatory approval for the fuel to be used in commercial reactors, at which point it would licence or sell the technology to established nuclear fuel manufacturers."
http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/explorationNuclearFuel/Thorium_passes_tests.shtml?jmid=791914082
Sunday, June 8, 2008
Rebuttal to arguments against use of nuclear power to produce electricity
I'm not sure I buy all these arguments but this blog referenced further down provides some useful information.
The mosr salient argumnet against nuclear energy is its potentail diversin to bomb making.
But the use of thorium fuel cycles reduces this risk substantially leaving the many advantages of nuclear.
In addition thorium fuel cycles can burn existing toxic radioactive waste products reducing the 'storage' problem which is certainly the second most salient argument against the renewal of nuclear.
http://futurejacked.blogspot.com/2007/09/more-lies-greenpeace-has-told-me.html
The mosr salient argumnet against nuclear energy is its potentail diversin to bomb making.
But the use of thorium fuel cycles reduces this risk substantially leaving the many advantages of nuclear.
In addition thorium fuel cycles can burn existing toxic radioactive waste products reducing the 'storage' problem which is certainly the second most salient argument against the renewal of nuclear.
http://futurejacked.blogspot.com/2007/09/more-lies-greenpeace-has-told-me.html
Thorium reactor in India soon?
from The Times of India 2007
...The novel Fast Thorium Breeder Reactor (FTBR) being developed by V. Jagannathan and his team at the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC) in Mumbai has received global attention after a paper was submitted to the International Conference on Emerging Nuclear Energy Systems (ICENES) held June 9-14 in Istanbul.
Power reactors of today mostly use a fissile fuel called uranium-235 (U-235), whose
"fission" releases energy and some "spare" neutrons that maintain the chain reaction. But only seven out of 1,000 atoms of naturally occurring uranium are of this type. The rest are "fertile", meaning they cannot fission but can be converted into fissionable plutonium by neutrons released by U-235.
Thorium, which occurs naturally, is another "fertile" element that can be turned by neutrons into U-233, another uranium isotope. U-233 is the only other known fissionable material. It is also called the "third fuel". Thorium is three times more abundant in the earth's crust than uranium but was never inducted into reactors because - unlike uranium - it has no fissionable atoms to start the chain reaction.
I know that nuclear power is frowned upon by most of the Peak Oil crowd. Fine, frown away. It is the only source of power that can be built to provide MORE fuel at the end of a cycle than what you started with. We've built them. They work.
As for other thorium fuel ideas, there is a company called Thorium Power working hard to implement a design that works in existing PWRs - a way to bridge the gap betwen current reactors and a new generation of designs.
Yes, there are problems with these reactors - since we've only built a few prototypes, there have been engineering problems to work out. But the technology is there. (And I still really like the molten salt version of the thorium-to-U233 breeder - another concept that was built and that worked and that was abandoned).
We are never going back to a world of supercheap fossil fuels (unless a major Depression deflates asset values across the globe - and then the fuel may be cheap for awhile, but you won't have two nickels to rub together in order to pay for it, so what would it matter). We can go to a world where electricity is still available in reliable, abundant amounts.
I fear that world lies on the other side of The Great Collapse, though. The Elliott Wave structure of nuclear power generation looks grim and I doubt the ability of the Baby Boomer Generation to adequately plan for the long-term health of the country. But - we can hope. And we can work towards new technologies that will save some areas of the country from the worst of the downturn, ready to spring forward when the bear market grinds to a close.
...The novel Fast Thorium Breeder Reactor (FTBR) being developed by V. Jagannathan and his team at the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC) in Mumbai has received global attention after a paper was submitted to the International Conference on Emerging Nuclear Energy Systems (ICENES) held June 9-14 in Istanbul.
Power reactors of today mostly use a fissile fuel called uranium-235 (U-235), whose
"fission" releases energy and some "spare" neutrons that maintain the chain reaction. But only seven out of 1,000 atoms of naturally occurring uranium are of this type. The rest are "fertile", meaning they cannot fission but can be converted into fissionable plutonium by neutrons released by U-235.
Thorium, which occurs naturally, is another "fertile" element that can be turned by neutrons into U-233, another uranium isotope. U-233 is the only other known fissionable material. It is also called the "third fuel". Thorium is three times more abundant in the earth's crust than uranium but was never inducted into reactors because - unlike uranium - it has no fissionable atoms to start the chain reaction.
I know that nuclear power is frowned upon by most of the Peak Oil crowd. Fine, frown away. It is the only source of power that can be built to provide MORE fuel at the end of a cycle than what you started with. We've built them. They work.
As for other thorium fuel ideas, there is a company called Thorium Power working hard to implement a design that works in existing PWRs - a way to bridge the gap betwen current reactors and a new generation of designs.
Yes, there are problems with these reactors - since we've only built a few prototypes, there have been engineering problems to work out. But the technology is there. (And I still really like the molten salt version of the thorium-to-U233 breeder - another concept that was built and that worked and that was abandoned).
We are never going back to a world of supercheap fossil fuels (unless a major Depression deflates asset values across the globe - and then the fuel may be cheap for awhile, but you won't have two nickels to rub together in order to pay for it, so what would it matter). We can go to a world where electricity is still available in reliable, abundant amounts.
I fear that world lies on the other side of The Great Collapse, though. The Elliott Wave structure of nuclear power generation looks grim and I doubt the ability of the Baby Boomer Generation to adequately plan for the long-term health of the country. But - we can hope. And we can work towards new technologies that will save some areas of the country from the worst of the downturn, ready to spring forward when the bear market grinds to a close.
Excellent Summary of Thorium Power as a company
http://www.thoriumpower.com/files/THPW_April_2007_Media_Fact_Sheet_-_final.pdf
More details about Thorium and Thorium Power
Two good articles that explain things better than I can:
http://www.power-technology.com/features/feature1141/
http://www.technologyreview.com/Energy/19758/
The articles are not current... being 6 months to a year old but still informative.
The potential for stock price increases still comes down in my opinion to affirmative answers to these questions:
1. Will nuclear energy be widely adopted as an alternative to coal and natural gas? This is not certain because the cost advantage of nuclear even considering a carbon tax is not enormous. The US Congress may act to encourage nuclear in the US and even thorium.
An international consensus to encourage thorium because of its anti-proliferation properties of course would be the ideal.
2. If nuclear energy is accepted as an alternative, will thorium fuel cycle be incorporated? The problem with thorium is that its a new technology and power plant owners are conservative. The best chances are probably in the Gulf States or India initially.
Another possibility is that thorium fuel cycle will be used to 'burn' weapons grade plutonium as an alternmative to long term storage as is.
3. If thorium is incorporated, will Thorium Power benefit..that is, while Throium Power may generate consulting revenue...as with UAE..., is Thorium Power's fuel design the likely choice and therefore the source of licensing revenue?
http://www.power-technology.com/features/feature1141/
http://www.technologyreview.com/Energy/19758/
The articles are not current... being 6 months to a year old but still informative.
The potential for stock price increases still comes down in my opinion to affirmative answers to these questions:
1. Will nuclear energy be widely adopted as an alternative to coal and natural gas? This is not certain because the cost advantage of nuclear even considering a carbon tax is not enormous. The US Congress may act to encourage nuclear in the US and even thorium.
An international consensus to encourage thorium because of its anti-proliferation properties of course would be the ideal.
2. If nuclear energy is accepted as an alternative, will thorium fuel cycle be incorporated? The problem with thorium is that its a new technology and power plant owners are conservative. The best chances are probably in the Gulf States or India initially.
Another possibility is that thorium fuel cycle will be used to 'burn' weapons grade plutonium as an alternmative to long term storage as is.
3. If thorium is incorporated, will Thorium Power benefit..that is, while Throium Power may generate consulting revenue...as with UAE..., is Thorium Power's fuel design the likely choice and therefore the source of licensing revenue?
Thorium as an alternative fuel for nuclear power generation...and Throrium Power as an investment opportunity..... some background
This note is a more detailed analysis of the potential of Thorium Power as a stock investment. Its stock's is $.27 on May 27th, 2008.
Thorium is an element and it is an alternative to uranium as a fuel in nuclear reactors that generate electricity.
Thorium is attractive as an alternative to uranium because it is more widely available, is more efficient, and perhaps most important is proliferation resistant. (see the analysis by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA..Mohammed ElBaradai is its head but previously its head was Hans Blix) below for a detailed discussion.
A Thorium fuel cycle as an alternative to uranium is well understood in the international nuclear power industry. Since the 1970s several reactors in several countries have tested thorium fuels.
But the ready availability of uranium in the early development of the industry and the slow development of severe opposition to additional nuclear power plants damped expenditures on the continued R&D necessary to bring Thorium fuel cycle reactors to the point of acceptance and installation as an attractive alternative to uranium.
But global warming and the desire to eliminate carbon based fuels. the advent of electric vehicles, plus the even more recent rise in the price of oil has revived interest in nuclear power as a no-green house gas solution to electric power generation.
But uranium fuel cycle nuclear plants also facilitates weapons development...e.g. Iran and North Korea
Interest in thorium fuel cycles is revived therefore because of the many advantages among these are:
1. Thorium is more widely available than uranium
2. Thorium fuel cycles are more proliferation resistant.
However the nuclear industry is reluctant to install new technology because of the fear of catastrophic failure and the release of radiation...such as Chernobyl.
Thorium fuel technology requires future R&D development and governments and industry are reluctant to invest.
Thorium Power has several assets it can exploit if nuclear power generation once again becomes a viable alternative fuel cycle:
1. Leases on property in Alabama that contains Thorium ore...US has estimated 18% of thorium ore.
2. A patented thorium-based fuel design that is undergoing testing by a Russian Institute and will be incorporated into a full scale nuclear reactor eventually.
3. Expertise in nuclear fuels design and in nuclear power generation and regulation in general...see Hans Blix involvement with Thorium Power Inc.
The value of Thorium Power stock will depend upon is ability to 'monetize' these assets.
To date the only monetization is through consulting contracts with United Arab Emirates.
Thorium Power has 300M shares ourtstanding. To warrant a stock price of $1 (the current price as of May 29th is $.27) the company must earn $15M/year, if the price earnings ratio is, for example, at 20 (hot stocks with great earnings potential may have price earnings ratios of 40. Google's PE Ratio is about 40 now).
If its net earnings are 30% of revenue (high), it needs to have revenues of $50M to warrant a stock price of $1 at a PE ratio of 20.
Its current revenues are only $3.5M...estimated to become perhaps $10m for 2008... and are solely from consulting services. It has no net earnings.
It is unlikely that sales of ore from its property holdings or consulting services will generate an adequate revenue stream to warrant a large increase in its stock price or its Price/earnings ratio.
Therefore its upside potential for stock price increase depends upon licensing fees from its intellectual property in Thorium fuel design.
Since thorium fuel cycles have been tested by several countries, I am uncertain at the moment how extensive the Thorium Power patents are.
In other words, if thorium fuel cycle reactors are built in the future (requiring large investments in design and testing in order to get licenses etc) what would Thorium Power's revenue flow from its IP be?
It patents are in the are of fuel design..not plant design or other aspects. Thorium does not design plants, mine ore, or operate plants.
It designs thorium fuel...and its only source of income would be royalty payments from Nuclear plant owners that use Thorium Power's fuel design.
Are there competing designs for fuel? My guess is either no or not many, but I don't know.
Of course another prospect is that a large company that builds nuclear power plants such as Bechtel or is involved deeply such as GE would buy Thorium Power...even at $1/share the purchase would be $300M.
I will continue to try to obtain more information about barriers to Thorium use and the depth of patent protection that Thorium Power has for thorium fuel designs. If its design is a leading or only one..then that would make a huge difference.
Mu guess is theta nuclear power will will regain favor..I see no reason why thorium would not be employed as an alternate fuel since it reduces chances of proliferation.
But there remains many ifs.
Additional information:
Excellent discussion by IAEA in 2000 of thorium potential: http://www.iaea.or.at/inis/aws/fnss/fulltext/31030535.pdf
A potential major user of thorium fuel cycle nuclear plants is India. It has large deposits of thorium and little uranium.
If through the USA 123 relationship, India gains access to uranium supplies, its interest in thorium fuel cycle plants may be significantly reduced.
Thorium is an element and it is an alternative to uranium as a fuel in nuclear reactors that generate electricity.
Thorium is attractive as an alternative to uranium because it is more widely available, is more efficient, and perhaps most important is proliferation resistant. (see the analysis by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA..Mohammed ElBaradai is its head but previously its head was Hans Blix) below for a detailed discussion.
A Thorium fuel cycle as an alternative to uranium is well understood in the international nuclear power industry. Since the 1970s several reactors in several countries have tested thorium fuels.
But the ready availability of uranium in the early development of the industry and the slow development of severe opposition to additional nuclear power plants damped expenditures on the continued R&D necessary to bring Thorium fuel cycle reactors to the point of acceptance and installation as an attractive alternative to uranium.
But global warming and the desire to eliminate carbon based fuels. the advent of electric vehicles, plus the even more recent rise in the price of oil has revived interest in nuclear power as a no-green house gas solution to electric power generation.
But uranium fuel cycle nuclear plants also facilitates weapons development...e.g. Iran and North Korea
Interest in thorium fuel cycles is revived therefore because of the many advantages among these are:
1. Thorium is more widely available than uranium
2. Thorium fuel cycles are more proliferation resistant.
However the nuclear industry is reluctant to install new technology because of the fear of catastrophic failure and the release of radiation...such as Chernobyl.
Thorium fuel technology requires future R&D development and governments and industry are reluctant to invest.
Thorium Power has several assets it can exploit if nuclear power generation once again becomes a viable alternative fuel cycle:
1. Leases on property in Alabama that contains Thorium ore...US has estimated 18% of thorium ore.
2. A patented thorium-based fuel design that is undergoing testing by a Russian Institute and will be incorporated into a full scale nuclear reactor eventually.
3. Expertise in nuclear fuels design and in nuclear power generation and regulation in general...see Hans Blix involvement with Thorium Power Inc.
The value of Thorium Power stock will depend upon is ability to 'monetize' these assets.
To date the only monetization is through consulting contracts with United Arab Emirates.
Thorium Power has 300M shares ourtstanding. To warrant a stock price of $1 (the current price as of May 29th is $.27) the company must earn $15M/year, if the price earnings ratio is, for example, at 20 (hot stocks with great earnings potential may have price earnings ratios of 40. Google's PE Ratio is about 40 now).
If its net earnings are 30% of revenue (high), it needs to have revenues of $50M to warrant a stock price of $1 at a PE ratio of 20.
Its current revenues are only $3.5M...estimated to become perhaps $10m for 2008... and are solely from consulting services. It has no net earnings.
It is unlikely that sales of ore from its property holdings or consulting services will generate an adequate revenue stream to warrant a large increase in its stock price or its Price/earnings ratio.
Therefore its upside potential for stock price increase depends upon licensing fees from its intellectual property in Thorium fuel design.
Since thorium fuel cycles have been tested by several countries, I am uncertain at the moment how extensive the Thorium Power patents are.
In other words, if thorium fuel cycle reactors are built in the future (requiring large investments in design and testing in order to get licenses etc) what would Thorium Power's revenue flow from its IP be?
It patents are in the are of fuel design..not plant design or other aspects. Thorium does not design plants, mine ore, or operate plants.
It designs thorium fuel...and its only source of income would be royalty payments from Nuclear plant owners that use Thorium Power's fuel design.
Are there competing designs for fuel? My guess is either no or not many, but I don't know.
Of course another prospect is that a large company that builds nuclear power plants such as Bechtel or is involved deeply such as GE would buy Thorium Power...even at $1/share the purchase would be $300M.
I will continue to try to obtain more information about barriers to Thorium use and the depth of patent protection that Thorium Power has for thorium fuel designs. If its design is a leading or only one..then that would make a huge difference.
Mu guess is theta nuclear power will will regain favor..I see no reason why thorium would not be employed as an alternate fuel since it reduces chances of proliferation.
But there remains many ifs.
Additional information:
Excellent discussion by IAEA in 2000 of thorium potential: http://www.iaea.or.at/inis/aws/fnss/fulltext/31030535.pdf
A potential major user of thorium fuel cycle nuclear plants is India. It has large deposits of thorium and little uranium.
If through the USA 123 relationship, India gains access to uranium supplies, its interest in thorium fuel cycle plants may be significantly reduced.
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